Coverage
Permit-level forecasts
For every permit on your watchlist: chance of approval, expected timing, and the named factors that widen the range. Updated as decisions, court rulings, and regime shifts land.
Calibrated permitting-risk forecasts for North American mining
Every mining project waits on permits. Investors, project owners, lenders, and the lawyers around them all need to know whether the permit will clear, when, and what could shift the answer. Kestrel Economics publishes forecasts for every major mining permit in North America, scoring them against the decisions regulators actually render.
What Kestrel publishes
Calibration
Scored in public
Every forecast is checked against the decision the regulator actually rendered. Hits and misses both. The track record is what earns trust.
Analysis
Deep dives on the hard cases
When a case is genuinely contested (a court challenge, a regime shift, a novel test in the law), a single number would mislead. We publish a standalone treatment instead.
Why this exists
Mining permits are bets. Most are made on instinct.
Project owners decide when to deploy capital. Investors take positions. Lawyers estimate timelines. Lenders price risk. They are all betting on the same unknowns: will the permit clear, when, and what could change the answer.
Today those bets get made based on experience, on the last anecdote, on what someone at the ministry said over coffee. Kestrel builds the substantive answer in public. Every forecast shows its baseline and the factors that widen it. Every decision gets scored against the forecast that pre-dated it. Wins and misses both.
Offerings
Two ways to use the forecast.
Subscription
Mining permit forecasting: weekly report.
Every week, a written read on what moved in mining permitting and what it means for the forecast on each project in coverage. The current watchlist, the decisions that landed, and the named factors that have widened or narrowed the range. Ontario first, expanding as coverage grows.
Analyst tool
Coming soonMining permit forecasting: analyst dashboard.
A working surface for analysts who use the forecast day to day. Track a custom set of permits, see the forecast and the named factors behind it, export plots into your own decks and memos, and get an email when something material changes. In development; opens once the weekly report has built a public track record worth working from.